Ahead of May's G7 Summit in Hiroshima, Toyota's Chief Scientist Dr. Gill Pratt spoke about the importance of diverse options as part of the unique decarbonization approach Japan seeks to share with the world.
Diversity is strength
The Q&A session that followed Dr. Pratt’s presentation touched on the challenges faced by various industries, such as the cost of developing infrastructure and alternative fuels. Dr. Pratt responded that "there is no reason to impose the same solution on every region.”
The power of diversity also resonated with Chairman Masakazu Tokura (Keidanren Chairman, Sumitomo Chemical Chairman of the Board), who had spoken about Amara’s Law when the Committee on Mobility met with Japanese government officials in 2022.
Chairman Tokura
Dr. Pratt mentioned Amara’s Law, the notion that we “overestimate innovative technologies in the short run and underestimate them in the long run.”
It should be noted that, while horse-drawn carriages ended up disappearing entirely, that is not the only pathway. Dr. Pratt is right to suggest that we should bear this in mind.
As well as diversity being a source of strength, I believe diversity creates resilience.
Geopolitics and the specifics of innovative technologies will continue to change. Moreover, just as with calls for biodiversity, various constraints will emerge, perhaps even coming into conflict with the green transformation.
In this light, I believe pursuing various paths is the correct tactic. As the JAMA (Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association) has rightly said, there are many pathways to carbon neutrality.
Another point to note is that Western countries have integrated their pathway into their economic diplomacy strategy. Industrial competition has begun.
We must offer firm opposition and adopt a broader perspective in how we approach Asia and the Global South.
I see the G7 as an ideal opportunity to grapple with these topics and hope that we can take advantage.
Finally, fellow Committee Chairman Akio Toyoda (JAMA Chairman, President of Toyota) urged collaboration in reducing CO2 emissions, with the auto industry serving as a pacesetter.
Chairman Toyoda
There is talk of banning (new sales of) gasoline-powered vehicles in 2035. Currently, around five million new cars are sold in Japan (annually). To produce that (many BEVs) every year would require a nuclear plant worth of additional power generation capacity.
So, what kind of renewable energy can we produce by 2035? As one example, there are 2,700 dams in Japan, amounting to an area roughly the size of Tokyo. Covering them with solar panels would be equivalent to (the annual generating capacity of) 30 nuclear power plants.
If gasoline-powered vehicles can no longer be sold beyond 2035, realistically we need to set a pace of cross-industry cooperation that can, among other things, establish the renewable energy capacity to cover our electricity needs by that time.
If all industries pursue efforts to lower CO2 emissions right now, we can extend the life of our planet beyond current projections.
I believe that considering the auto industry as a pacesetter, while also seeking the cooperation of other industries, would help to strengthen Japan’s overall competitiveness.
Unless the private sector works together towards the same end, this country may not have a future. For as long as I hold this role, I will do what I can, and I ask for your ongoing cooperation.
Dr. Pratt laid out the scientific basis behind Japan’s unique path to carbon neutrality. As the world’s attention turns to the G7 Summit, persuading national leaders to embrace this approach will require even closer collaboration across industries.